Baby is still on treetop

The crane is carrying the baby, higher and higher up to the treetop. Guess, we have to wait for the baby to be fall flat on the ground. It will not be any sooner. US is still at its transitional period of adjustment without raising interest rate. The longest wait will be, NFP or Tony Blair to resign next year or a sudden wind change in US economy or terrorist attack in England. Patience is a virtual.

Making headlines for today:
GBP Surges to 14-year High, USD Resumes Slide by Korman Tam
Stocks seen up on retail sales strength
Smithfield Foods earnings fall, miss estimates
Consumer spending perks up in October

Wow, very very impressive... Mr. Jeffrey Tie finally have a blog: http://jefftie.wordpress.com/. Few months ago, I wanted to join as his apprentice in learning trade, however, time do not permit me to do so. Now, since he has a blog, can catch him in his action. :)

Bullet Train

It seems that the GBP and EUR is like a Bullet Train, go crushing level after level of resistance, moving higher and higher up up up, like a hot air ballon. I didn't trade today, as i was busy assisting a friend to fix up PC.

Rock-A-Bye Baby

Well, well... it seems Euro and GBP is still staying head strong on it's position... I really love this research paper: Consumer confidence should remain quite stable in November. If USD going to be stable and some indication of staying strong, it would meant that "TIMBER EFFECT" will be sooner than expected. Until then, still have to look at how is the sentiment of the market for now. My expectation would be Euro and GBP would remain in swing position, and would be great for all those swing traders. It would still be in a "rock-a-bye baby mode" of trading...

We have US Durable Goods Order and Consumer Confidence for today.. Until then, will have to staying behind the bush like a preditor in a jungle hunt, at least still better than swimming with the sharks... :D

Aftermath of Thanksgiving

After the epic adventure of last week trading saga, most trader checked their platform to verify whether the rate shown in platform is true in value. This is due to the sudden price hike during the asian opening session.

Things are moving really really fast at the end of year 2006 as usual. Well, volatility is here to stay. Initially, i thought it would be a boring thanksgiving, but, surprise, surprise... most USD across other currency moved 100 pips last week. Because of this uncertainly, I reallly love the excitement it brings, and keep my heart pumping fast with tweaking of braincells to make my finger and mind to move to a faster pace of processing and movement.

Beijing: China yuan central parity rate set a new high of 7.8402

Fun, Fun, Fun....

During last Friday forex performance, omg, USD weaken across board... firstly, it was due to Thanksgiving where most American trader was out for vacation. Secondly, economic outcome for GBP (BOE minutes) and ECB was good. To cope with the inflation, interest rate will be expecting to increase this few months. Third, amid speculation that the US Federal Reserve will cut borrowing rates as its European counterpart raises them. The growing belief is the culmination of several weeks of less than impressive US economic data combined with continued comment from ECB officials that point towards two further rate rises in 2007. Most experience traders were caught taking the wrong direction. Gosh, was really caught by this big surprise. I missed all this, as I was shopping for my own early Christmas present, a second-hand19 inch LCD HP at a reasonable price. :) Very happy about it....

During weekend, I travel from Singapore to JB for some shopping and relaxation of mine. Used 2nd link and passed through Gelang Patah. Gelang Patah, hmm..., has a seabrass and white prawn farming, didn't manage to visit the farm, but was glad to pass through it, as all this travel experience did had my mind tweaked a bit. There were great ideas forming, but, not great enough to share around. :( Hoping this tweak of mind would change the way how i analyse the forex market. :D

Rejoice... Happy ThanksGiving

Finally, thanksgiving is today... and my exam over... What a great relief...

Now is the moment of truth, I am opening my secret Pandora's Box today, and unveil the secret that lies beneath the box. The fountain of truth and rejuvenation... Embarking on a Star-trek: Nemesis... :D Nice, cool and wonderful feeling it was.

The renown, Jake Bernstein is in Singapore. Still thinking of whether to attend his talk tomorrow or not... Hmm, stilll thinking....

Let's see what's in the knowledge market today:
Aussie John expects two more years of NSW pain
I thought US is having the housing problem, NSW is having this too... So, it is a global problem now.

AWB feels the pinch as its bills hit $34m
Not so interesting, but, still readable.

Uranium mine blamed for high Aboriginal cancer rate
Results of no social responsibility by the company

Pope considers allowing use of condoms
Wow, modernisation....

Nothing much on forex, as market is at it's narrow range bound.....

Danger, danger...

Do note that Thanksgiving is this week for USA. Very slow slow market. Observation of holiday hours as below:
HOLIDAY HOURS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY

Forex is a dangerous market.... even big company also lost out... Currency Bets Punish Commodity Traders, Henry in 2006

This is a must read for all Malaysian:
While Malaysia fiddles, its opportunities are running dry Is Malaysia's oil going to run out soon?

Monday Blue

It's Thanksgiving week for the American. Market volatility is expected to reduce, and traders would be facing with thin market throughout the end of this week. Since Singapore no longer provide NST Interactive for free (except TODAY), have to find other sources of newspaper to read. Saw this interesting article from India Daily: Fed will raise rate starting March 2007 – US Dollar gets ready for a rally

Regarding the article above, hmm, not sure what to think of it currently. But, my instinct is telling me that Fed will not increase current rate, due to political reasons (Republican/ Democrats). Too early to tell now, will have to wait and re-evaluate the situation in next year, January 2007.

After i read this article, Housing: The Riddle of Rates and Prices, makes me thinking of this matter too. No matter what, there is still a strong correlation between the price of housing vs the interest rate.

This few week, i had been reading stuff about Corporate Governance, Whistle Blowing and Combined Code, which are all about accounting. Let me introduce you to something for the finance industry, Plunge Protection Team ensures the stability of the financial markets, prevents liquidity problems, and ensures that stock market hiccups do not cause bank runs. :D

For me, corporate governance is basically for a micro-economic view, as it is all about the way company are directed and controlled for a corporation. Plunge Protection Team is more of a macro-economic view where it involve the danger of monetary inflation being used as a tool to more or less directly support stock market prices.

Just for fun: over in the other side of globe, this is really really funny... this is how they use economy surplus: Free Viagra spices up life in Brazilian town

Milton Tribute:Laissez-Faire Policy

It is a pretty sad moment for Economist Milton Friedman to died at the age of 94. I used to read all his theory and ideas in textbook, and sometimes, quoted them during essay or speech. It is pretty sad to see this legendary man leave us.

NY Times: Milton Friedman, Free-Market Theorist, Dies at 94 (5 pages story)

"when a combination of high unemployment and inflation, known as "stagflation" is one of his quote. For more articles and bibliography: Milton Friedman

Interesting stuff
I really love this, it is about comments for Peter Costello where he is bearish all the time. For those who don't know who is he, well, basically he is the Australia's Federal Treasurer. Also interesting to know that that Australia's latest interest rate rise may be the last..... :D

Singapore Retail Sales Disappoint

Singapore Dollar
(Extracted from FXCM)
Prospects for the city-state’s currency narrowed on the session following a disappointing retail sales figure for the month of September. Although making an advance on the month of 1.7 percent, the release falls well short of the 3.3 percent consensus estimate expected by the market. Department store sales were higher by a whopping 7 percent. However, wider losses in auto sales suppressed any explosive gains in the report. Lending to immediate weakness in the currency, the resultant effects are likely to be temporary as the economy’s consumers continue to remain strong, backed by a tight labour market spurring wage advances. Subsequently, the lackluster results are likely to accompany the upcoming non-oil exports report, which is additionally expected to show a slow down. For the month of October, exports are expected to drop to an increase of 6.5 percent compared to the previous month’s 8.3 percent annualized rise. Separately, equities were bolstered on a release by the second biggest property company in the country. City Developments Ltd. led advancing issues after the company stated profit that almost quadrupled, lending a positive bias on real estate shares. As a result, the Straits Times index added 17.74 points to 2,777.62 at the close, rising higher to a record for the second straight day.

Personal opinion
With the GST going to hike from the current 5% to 7% and chances of increase for individual & corporate tax, I wonder what is next to be install for people living in the Lion City. Bush is in town today, then, next year Democrats turn to take over. Until then, we will still see Bush around, until his term expire. Who is the next US President? Will we see Mitt Romney being the next US President? Anyway, I sure hope that everything would settle down, as every country in earth is suffering from inflation. If inflation still sky-rocketing in months to come, poor people would suffer, and rich people getting rich as start selling assets as everythings boom. Shares, unit trust, property, cost of living all going up. Sooner or later, depression will just hitting US, and spread the disease over to every part of the world. Is this the cyclical of the economic world? The good thing about forex trading is that there is always a demand and supply for the currency, and won't be affected by inflation and depression. :D

2 weeks Forex Break

As the 2nd quarter of the financial period drawing to a close, forex volatility is here to stay. Funds managers and institution would love to improve the overall performance of the portfolio during this time of the year, by having a positive returns, just to stay answerable to the shareholders and stakeholders.

While looking at the charts and the forex counter moving pips per pips, gosh, i can't do any scalping now as it is pass my bedtime. Currently, Gold price rises to $627 an ounch; ECB is sayint rates are "accomodative"; crude oil rises after Saudi Arabia meets its pledge to trim output; ECB's Garganas says monetary conditions favour growth, strong vigilance is essential, ECB will act in a firm and timely manner; and many many more news during this US hours.

While blogging this, I was laughing all the way. Why? Basically, i have this paper to study, it is all about strategy, structure, control, time management and planning, nothing to do with the market. A promise is a promise, so have to stay focus to clear what i set to accomplish. Practically, it will be a break for me, to work on this newly acquired knowledge to put in use in forex, in a most bizarre way. Just saw my US friend, Zeus, who is using Chaos Theory style of trading, saying buy GBP at here, here, and here... Clearly, i will just staying sideline for now, until i clear my paper. Need to stay "focus"..... Missing all the fun..... :( Don't worry, I work harder after clearing my paper, targeting, Non-farm Payroll next month. Guess what, since I can't blog in tune with market, I have added few nice realtime stuff, to enhance the feeling of a one stop information station. Nice to see EURJPY at this level ;P

Sorry, information is here and there, in a very non-structural manner.

Nothing important here, just stating something what i learn:
Prahalad & Hamel (1990) Core competence as collective learning in the organisation, especially how to coordinate diverse production skills & integrated multiple stream of technologies. 3 tests to identify core competence: provide wide variety of markets; provide significant contribution to perceived customer benefits to final product and difficult for competitors to imitate. This relatively shows that organisation need to take this seriously to excel in this competitive market.

Oct 2006: Asian Fund Market

Just putting here for those stock market savvy person, extracted Market Summary Oct 2006 from LIPPER, A Reuters Company

Singapore Fund - Equity Funds Up Again As Markets Power Ahead

• Funds registered for sale in Singapore were up 1.28% in October, boosted by robust stock market gains, while authorized funds returned 1.35% on average.
• Equity unit trusts appreciated 2.14%, with funds investing in Singapore (+6.34%), Australasia (+6.52%), Emerging Europe (+6.54%), and Gold & Precious Metals (+7.78%) leading gains
• Currency translation losses ate into returns of fixed income funds (-0.38%) and money market products (-0.30%), despite declining long-term bond yields as the U.S. Federal Reserve left rates unchanged

Malaysia Fund - Equity Funds Up As Malaysian Bulls Return

• Funds appreciated 1.97% in October, with gains across most sectors
• Equity unit trusts again outperformed (+2.53%), with domestic natural resources and small-cap funds as well as global and regional real estate fund sectors being the notable winners during the month
• Bond funds were up 0.78% on average, with Bond MYR performing in line with the month before (+0.80%), while Bond Global fell (-0.49%)
• Islamic subsectors returned 1.80% on average, generally underperforming the broader market, with the exception of Protected-Islamic (+0.37%)

Thailand Fund - Domestic Funds Outperform As Thai Bourse Bounces Back

• Funds registered for sale in Thailand advanced 1.87% in October, boosted by gains in both domestic and foreign offerings
• Equity funds outperformed, notably Equity Thailand offerings (+4.83%), following a 5.30% rise in the SET Index
• Fixed income funds were up 0.40% on average, with Bond THB gaining 0.41%, while foreign bond funds did less well because of translation factors
• Money market funds returned 0.36% on average
  

Hong Kong Mandatory Provident Funds

• Asian markets surged in October, with the Hang Seng Index hitting a six-year high
• Equity Hong Kong, Europe, Asia Pacific ex Japan, and Greater China had outstanding performance in October and for the year to date
• Equity Japan fell behind for the year to date
• International capital inflows turned torrid, which the Hong Kong market was anticipating
• China and U.S. economies turned toward a “soft landing”—benefiting global equity and bond markets
  

Taiwan Fund —The Darkest Hour Is Before the Dawn

• Asian markets continued bullish, with the Philippines coming to the throne
• Emerging Asia equity funds led; Taiwan equity funds fell behind
• Equity Japan Sm-&Mid-Cap and Equity Japan were the bottom two categories YTD
• Oil, commodities, and precious metals stopped their slump, and the related funds rebounded
• Developments in Taiwan politics became the focus
  
  

Latest Asian Power

Wow, BOC is sure making one of its top investment history this recent months: Bank of China, Dubai May Bid for Singapore Aircraft Leasing. The economic outlook for China seems getting better and better: China Inflation Unexpectedly Slows as Food Gains Ease.

If the deal for Singapore Aircraft Leasing is successful, RMB will weaken when there is an outflow of funds out of China. I think RMB is going to be a major hot currency to trade, sooner or later.

The weak Japanese Yen has caused Asian Stocks Drop, Led by BHP on Metals; Japanese Banks Fall and this Yen Lures Swiss, Russian, New Zealand Central Banks. Note to forget, Japanese current account surplus rising..... Guess i will be watching closely on this Japanese Yen too.... Swimming with the latest trend. :D

Holistic view: Porter's 5 Forces

While reading on the economic impact of the forex market between Euro and Japan for the production of automobile industry, my mind being trigger by the Porter's 5 forces model. Porter's 5 forces model is a tool to analyse the industry which a company is interested to enter or considering to further invest in or to identify what competitive strategy is needed. Michael Porter arguees that competition in an industry is determined by its basic underlying economic structure - the 5 competitive forces namely threat of entry, rivalry among existing competitors, substitutes, bargaining power of buyers and bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat of entry can affect the profitability of the industry by creating an impact through an actual entry or by forcing firms to follow pre-emptive strateges to stop new entrants. An actual entry may lead to a forced price reduction or differentiation by incumbents. Incumbents may build up the barriers-to-entry to deter prospective entrants. Barriers-to-entry may include economies of scale, switching costs, access to distribution, cost advantages and government policy.

With an interest rate of 0.25% for Japan and 3.25% for Euro (5% for Cable), the mortgage or lending rate for both country will greatly affect the strategic planning in their export market. I still recall vividly that USA has forced China to revalue its RMB, but China was holding it as the impact of the revaluation of a stronger RMB will cause the China export to drop. Then, this prompt me to ask myself, is this what Japan is trying to do in order to boost it's export market. Applying Suntzu art of war in the business market by penetrating any market (US Market) with an attractive exchange rate. Bulk production also makes acquisition of raw material for the manufacturing production cheaper. Sidelines, older Japanese car model are being sold to 3rd world countries after reconditioned.

By having this threat to new entry being minimised from Euro market, rivary among existing market is being reduced due to cost leadership and differentiation (innovative design), and Japanese animation being a brain-wash mechanism in the US market. Thinking of World War 2 how Japanese brain-wash the youngster. Japan will be a super-power in years to come in the business arena.

*Note, there is no real substance in this, just writing for fun. :D

Asian Power

This few days has been a tough forex market, as the range is getting narrow for some of the currency pairs. A very good market for scalper, and not a LT trader. Most LT trader are staying sideline for major pairs, until the market is clear of the direction. If there are news, they are only great for scalpers or professional fx trader.

The major fundamental report results:
Nov 9
09:30 GMT UK ! Trade Balance -6.6B (A) -6.5B (E) -6.7B (P)
12:00 GMT UK !!! Bank of England Rate Decision 5.00% (A&E) 4.75% (P)
13:30 GMT US !!! Trade Balance -64.3 (A) -66.0B (E) -69.9B (P)

Nov 10
13:45 GMT United States !! Fed Bernanke / ECB Trichet speaks

Economic growth in France stagnated in the third quarter of the year. Could this be a sign that USD might cover some ground, since next week is all about Euro fundamental. Or maybe this: Germany's trade gets export boost to maintain the USD at where it is on EURUSD. Very interesting isn't it? Because of this, Japan is moving EURJPY to a rate of 151.01, in order to gain competitive advantages through cost leadership in US market due to exchange rate. When EURJPY reached this 151 level, I was jumping out of my seat, so is any other traders. Many had to cut loss for this trade. Luck for me, I was not trading at that time, due to many big sharks lurking around the sea. Still waiting to read article about this, or maybe no one is writing this except me. :D

This week, Governor Zhou Xiaochuan gain popularity in the forex market. There were even rumours about BOC and BOJ invested lots of Euro to push the euro at this level, 1.2841, indirectly pushing EURJPY at a higher ground. How true is it? Not sure. Last time, BOJ used to be a major FX influence, now, BOC. It seems that more asian countries are taking forex as an interest after all. Wonder who's next?

Latest news regarding People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan: Dollar Drops This Week as China Says It Will Diversify Reserves

Ok, since this week someone from India is asking me for Ichimoku Kinko Hyo book, I might as well blog this a bit. Ichimoku is basically a technical indicator that is used to gauge momentum along with future areas of support and resistance. The Ichimoku indicator comprised of five lines called the tenkan-sen, kijun-sen, senkou span A, senkou span B and chickou span. It has the strengthen for trader to gauge an asset's trend, momentum and support and resistance points without the need of any other technical indicator. I know one of the bank that is good at this: Saxo Bank, where most analysis is based upon this. For those who are interested to learn more about this exotic indicator, try a newly setup forum where kumotrader gathered around for exchange of ideas and learn, http://www.boersmaandhunt.com/kumotrader_forum/.

Trader's life journey

My experience to date personally and in discussion with other traders confirms its accuracy.

Step One: Unconscious Incompetence
This is the first step you take when starting to look into trading. You know that its a good way of making money because you've heard so many things about it and heard of so many millionaires. Unfortunately, just like when you first desire to drive a car you think it will be easy - afterall, how hard can it be? Price either moves up or down - what's the big secret to that then - lets get cracking! Unfortunately, just as when you first take your place in front of a steering wheel you find very quickly that you haven't got the first clue about what you're trying to do. You take lots of trades and lots of risks. When you enter a trade it turns against you so you reverse and it turns again .. and again, and again. You try to turn around your losses by doubling up every time you trade. Sometimes you'll get away with it but more often than not you will come away shattered and bruised. You are totally oblivious to your incompetence at trading. This step can last for a week or two of trading but the market is usually swift and you move.

Step Two - Conscious Incompetence
Step two is where you realise that there is more work involved in trading and that you might actually have to work a few things out. You consciously realise that you are an incompetent trader -you don't have the skills or the insight to turn a regular profit. You now set about buying systems and e-books galore, read websites based everywhere from USA to the Ukraine, and begin your search for the holygrail. During this time you will be a system nomad - you will flick from method to method day by day and week by week never sticking with one long enough to actually see if it does work. Every time you come upon a new indicator you'll be ecstatic that this is the one that will make all the difference. You will test out automated systems on Metatrader, you'll play with moving averages, Fibonacci lines, support resistance,Pivots, Fractals, Divergence, DMI, ADX, and a hundred other things all in the vein hope that your 'magic system' starts today. You'll be a top and bottom picker, trying to find the exact point of reversal with your indicators and you'll find yourself chasing losing trades and even adding to them because you are so sure you are right. You'll go in to the live chat room and see other traders making pips and you want to know why it's not you - you'll ask a million questions, some of which are so dumb that looking back you feel a bit silly. You'll then reach the point where you think all the ones who are calling pips after pips are liars - they can't be making that amount because you've studied and you don't make that, you know as much as they do and they must be lying. But they're in there day after day and their account just grows whilst yours falls. You will be like a teenager - the traders that make money will freely give you advice but you're stubborn and think that you know best - you take no notice and overtrade your account even though everyone says you are mad to - but you know better. You'll consider following the calls that others make but even then it wont work so you try paying for signals from someone else - they don't work for you either. This step can last ages and ages - in fact in reality talking with other traders as well as personal experience confirms that it can easily last well over a year. This is also the step when you are most likely to give up through sheer frustration. Eventually you do begin to come out of this phase. You've probably committed more time and money than you ever thought you would, lost 2 or 3 loaded accounts and all but given up maybe 3 or 4 times.

Step 3 - The Eureka Moment
Towards the end of stage two you begin to realise that it's not the system that is making the difference. You realise that its actually possible to make money with a simple moving average and nothing else IF you can get your head and money management right You start to read books on the psychology of trading and identify with the characters portrayed in those books and finally comes the eureka moment. The eureka moment causes a new connection to be made in your brain. You suddenly realise that neither you, nor anyone else can accurately predict what the market will do in the next ten seconds, never mind the next 20 mins. You start to work just one system that you mould to your own way of trading,you're starting to get happy and you define your risk threshold. You start to take every trade that your 'edge' shows has a good probability of winning with. When the trade turns bad you don't get angry or even because you know in your head that as you couldn't possibly predict it, it isn't your fault - as soon as you realise that the trade is bad you close it . The next trade will have higher odds of success because you know your system works. You have realised in an instant that the trading game is about one thing - consistency of your 'edge' and your discipline to take all the trades no matter what as you know the probabilities stack in your favour. You learn about proper money management and leverage - risk of account etc etc - and this time it actually soaks in and you think back to those who advised the same thing a year ago with a smile. You weren't ready then, but you are now. The eureka moment came the moment that you truly accepted that you cannot predict the market.

Step 4 - Conscious Competence
You are making trades whenever your system tells you to. You take losses just as easily as you take wins You now let your winners run to their conclusion fully accepting the risk and knowing that your system makes more money than it looses and when you're on a loser you close it swiftly with little pain to your account You are now at a point where you break even most of the time - day in day out, you will have weeks where you make 100 pips and weeks where you lose 100 pips - generally you are breaking even and not losing money. You are now conscious of the fact that you are making calls that are generally good and you are getting respect from other traders as you chat the day away. You still have to work at it and think about your trades but as this continues you begin to make more money than you lose consistently. You'll start the day on a 20 pip win, take a 35 pip loss and have no feelings that you've given those pips back because you know that it will come back again. You will now begin to make consistent pips week in and week out 25 pips one week, 50 the next and so on. This lasts about 6 months

Step Five - UnconsciousCompetence
Now we're cooking - just like driving a car, every day you get in your seat and trade - you do everything now on an unconscious level. You are running on autopilot. You start to pick the really big trades and getting 100 pips in a day is becoming quite normal to you.This is trading utopia - you have mastered your emotions and you are now a trader with a rapidly growing account. You're a star in the trading chat room and people listen to what you say. You recognise yourself in their questions from about two years ago. You pass on your advice but you know most of it is futile because they're teenagers - some of them will get to where you are - some will do it fast and others will be slower - literally dozens and dozens will never get past stage two, but a few will. Trading is no longer exciting - in fact it's probably boring you to bits - like everything in life when you get good at it or do it for your job - it gets boring - you're doing your job and that's that. You can now say with your head held high "I'm a currency trader" FACT : 90%+ of traders loose money trading FOREX. I quote from Dr Alexander Elder's excellent book, Trading for a Living" Brokerage records indicate that 90 out of 100 people trading today will probably be gone from the markets a year from now. They will hitrock bottom, crumble and leave. They will try to forget trading as they would a bad dream." The 64000 question is : Are you prepared to put in the time and effort necessary to put yourself into the 10% group who make money? There are no shortcuts.

US Election Result

Well, US Election result is out... and guess what, Democrats win. This is what i'm afraid of, a close battle. I was rooting for a strong one party win, that is Republican, at least USD would strengthen. No more Bush, and we will get to see more Nancy Pelosi in media now. :(

Now, USD weaken... Guess the USD strengthen near the end of year would not be the same as last year. Prove one thing, "History don't repeat itself" :D

US Election Day

SG Tues 021106 1600H
While i was reading in a forex forum, i saw this "Great minds discuss ideas, mediocre minds discuss events, small minds discuss people", then i saw my blog.... argh... My calibre is only at a mediocre range. This really prompt me for an PERT (Project Evaluation Review Technique) style of constant evaluation.

Ok, back to business.

Last Friday, 031106 fundamental report
USD Nonfarm Employment Change 92K 130K 51K
USD Unemployment Rate 4.4% 4.6% 4.6%
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 57.1 55.0 52.9
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 51.9 54.0 56.7

It was a spectacular event indeed on that NFP evening. Within 1 min, it moved up 20 pips, then there were some error, it quickly adjust to the error. At the end of the day, it was a USD positive. It was nothing much to talk about NFP as this is the day where Technical Analysis is not workable, within the first 5 min after the news are out. Investor stress, tension, and emotion is everywhere. It was fun just to watch all this happening, better than SGX stock, due to the high volatility.

Normally, I don't trade after NFP on the following trade day, Monday. It is because normally the range is very narrow, and directionless.

Today's fundamental:
10:00 GMT European Monetary Union !! Retail Sales (MoM)
11:00 GMT Germany ! Industrial Production (MoM)
11:00 GMT United Kingdom !! BRC Retail Sales Monitor - All (YoY)

Guess what, today's fundamental is nothing. What every investor is waiting are the US election report. Whether greenback will strengthen or weaken, all depends on who is winning, Democrats vs Republicans. I would expect that if a strong win of one party, USD might strengthen. If a 50%-50% vote, it will be very interesting as the market investor would stay sideline waiting for the reaction of hedge fund manager or some banking institution to make their first move. If you want more instant update, stay tune to Bloomberg / Marketwatch or rss feed of US news station.

*Do note that Watanabe or those RBA Melbourne Cup will not be cover, maybe later in the month when all US is out of the picture.

Weekend enjoyment

Over the weekend, i spent few hours playing on my latest collection, gadget for market analysis. I bought them at a fortune, and i find them "priceless". Now, I have EOD for Metastock and Advanced GET, with more indicators to play with, and also Elliot Wave function. Pretty cool... as now, i can analyse any market: futures, options, Hang Seng, KLSE, anything as long i have those raw data. After my exam, I will have more programming language to work on, with strategy testing, and so forth. :D

I won't know how my future going to be, but, one thing for sure, spending time analysing and working on the market makes me happy and contented.

USD Meltdown

SG 021106 1852H

311006 Fundamentals
German Retail Sales m/m -1.7% 0.6% 0.0%
UK Nationwide House Prices m/m 0.7% 0.5% 1.3%
EUR Business Climate Indicator 1.42 1.43 1.46
USD Consumer Confidence 105.4 108.0 104.5
USD Chicago PMI 53.5 58.0 62.1

Practically, it has been a complete USD meltdown after the 311006 weak release where Conference Board's number dropped from 105.9 to 105.4. The major meltdown was due to the Chicago PMI report where it dropped from 62.1 to 53.5, the lowest since August 2005.
Inventories accumulated to the highest level since the 1970s, which suggests that some harsh measures may need to be taken to rein in those numbers.

011106 Fundamental
USD ISM Manufacturing Index 51.2 53.0 52.9
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 47.0 58.0 61.0

On 011106, USD ISM Manufacturing Index dropped to 51.2 whereas ISM Manufacturing Prices dropped from 61.0 to 47.0. Scary indeed, investor across the board dumping, dumping and dumping money to sell sell sell USD. It is not surprising enough to see USD across the board dropped more than 100 pips in less than an hour. Isn't that a "WOW".....

Whether USD will regain strength or not, it will all boil down to NFP this Friday. :D Looking forward to that day. I really missed a lot due to concentration on other matter. :(